It’s difficult not to pay attention to the saber rattling in
the Middle East, not with gas prices approaching or exceeding $4.00 per gallon in most of
the United States and a constant barrage of articles on the news wires like
THIS, THIS ,
and
THIS. I’m neither a politician nor a diplomat, but
I am a military analyst and weapons technology expert with a more than passing familiarity with
the weapons and forces that will shape a potential conflict. I’ll beg your indulgence while I engage in a bit
of military futurism.
---
Setting the Stage
Let’s say we have three countries, Freedonia, Sylvania and
Trentino.*
Freedonia
Freedonia is a global superpower, with military forces and
commitments spread around the world.
These forces are well equipped with modern weapons, electronics and
communications. Freedonia has a vital
strategic interest in the part of the world (let’s call it the
“Meso-Orientale”) where both Sylvania and Trentino are situated. This strategic interest is due to the fact
that a large portion of Freedonia’s energy supplies come from petroleum
drilling in Meso-Orientalian countries.
Much of this petroleum is shipped in tankers through a narrow waterway
off of Trentino’s southern coast.
Sylvania
Sylvania is a dominant regional power whose forces are at
least as well equipped as those of Freedonia.
It is surrounded by states that are politically and, given its position
as the world’s only Semitic state, theologically hostile to it. It has fought six wars with some or all of
these states since its founding in the late 1940s, and faces an ongoing threat
of terrorism from organizations claiming to represent an indigenous population
group that, for various reasons, was displaced by Sylvania’s founding. These groups are supplied and funded by
Trentino, and regularly launch mortar and rocket attacks against Sylvanian
cities. To defend against these attacks,
Sylvania has developed an indigenous integrated radar and interceptor rocket
system called “Steel Roof.” Sylvania is
widely thought to be a nuclear power, but there has never been any objective
confirmation or denial of this capability.
Trentino
 |
| Trentinan uranium enrichment facility, near Qom. |
Trentino is a regional power. For most of the 20
th century,
Trentino’s political orientation was western, and it was seen as a vital
bulwark against communist expansion during the Cold War. During the latter half of the century,
Trentino received significant military and technical aid from both Freedonia
and Sylvania. In the late 1970s,
Trentino’s monarchy was overthrown by a popular revolution organized around
fundamentalist religious lines, and a “revolutionary” theocracy was
established. The new government was
vehemently anti-western, and even held a number of Freedonian diplomats hostage
for over 400 days. Trentino’s revolutionary
government is also opposed to the existence of the Sylvanian state, and
regularly broadcasts speeches and platforms that both support anti-Sylvanian
terrorism and urge that Sylvania be wiped off the face of the planet. Trentino has been attempting to develop what
it calls a “peaceful nuclear capability” since prior to the overthrow of the
monarchy. It is generally believed that
Trentino’s nuclear ambitions are geared more toward the development of
deliverable nuclear weapons and less toward providing electricity for its
population.
Tensions
 |
| Anti-Freedonian rally in Trentino |
Recently, both Freedonian and Sylvanian intelligence
services have reported that Trentino is rapidly approaching a nuclear
threshold. Economic sanctions imposed by
the United Nations have been ineffective in deterring Trentinan nuclear
development. Additionally, it is
believed that the downward spiral of the Trentinan economy may be forcing the
government to accelerate the nuclear program as a means of distracting and
placating a restive population. The
imminence of a nuclear capable Trentino is of great concern to Freedonia due to
its energy interests in the region, but of existential concern to Sylvania,
which Trentino has, many times, sworn to wipe from the face of the planet with
“hellfire.”
As a result of these concerns, the Sylvanians are actively
planning for a contingency operation in which the Sylvanian Air Force will
destroy the dozen or so Trentinan nuclear facilities in a surprise precision
attack. Meanwhile, the Freedonian administration, which is notably more distant
in its relations with Sylvania than previous administrations, is both advising
restraint and admonishing Sylvania as to the dire consequences of unilateral
action. However, the Sylvanian
government remains adamant that its priority is to protect and preserve the
Sylvanian state. Trentino is making no
effort to diminish tensions, in fact, quite the opposite. The Trentinan government routinely threatens
both Freedonia and Sylvania.
In fact, itwas recently discovered that Trentinan agents in Kush had been planning to bomba Sylvanian ship as it transited the Alexandria Canal.
Action
In early April, the Sylvanian government is advised by its
intelligence agencies, and very likely, those of regional allies, that left
unhindered, Trentino will be able to build a nuclear weapon within three
months. Faced with this stark reality,
the Sylvanian government reluctantly authorizes the strike.
Day 1
As darkness falls on April 24th, Sylvanian aircraft
take to the skies. These, however, are
not the F-16 and F-15 fighters that will bear the brunt of the fight, but
Eitan, Harpy and Harop Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV).
 |
| Eitan MALE UAV |
The Eitan, a Medium Altitude Long Endurance (MALE) UAV
serves as a reconnaissance platform, providing real-time feedback to Sylvanian
strike controllers as to the state and condition of Trentinan defenses. However, a number of the Eitans have been
modified to carry electronic warfare payloads.
These payloads give the Trentinans tremendous capabilities, from
mimicking a maintenance cell phone signal that puts a cell network out of
action by commanding it to “sleep” to jammers that interfere with first responder
emergency frequencies and signal generators that at one moment will spoof
the Trentinan air defense radars so that
at first they see a perfectly clear sky and at the next moment see a sky filled
with many hundreds of aircraft.
 |
| Harpy UCAV |
The Harpy and Harop are stealthy Unmanned Combat Aerial
Vehicles (UCAV) designed to quietly loiter around the battlespace until air
defense radars begin emitting their search and tracking signals. Once Trentinan
radars light up, the UCAVs dive into them and detonate their integral warhead,
effectively suppressing Trentino’s ability to engage Sylvanian strike aircraft.
 |
| Harop UCAV |
 |
| MSOV |
The UAVs are followed a few hours later by waves of
Sylvanian F-16 and F-15 aircraft. Some are carrying precision guided penetrator
munitions designed to burrow dozens of feet into reinforced concrete before
detonating. Others are carrying Runway
Attack Munitons (RAM) which release dozens of penetrating submunitions that
crater a runway, rendering it useless, or the Modular Stand-Off Vehicle (MSOV),
a precision guided, missile shaped gliding vehicle that can be programmed to fly over an
air base and dispense homing bomblets intended to destroy aircraft on the
ground.
 |
| Runway Attack Munition |
Some aircraft are fitted
entirely with air-to-air missiles, intended to counter any Trentinan aircraft
that get off the ground.
Before the Sylvanian aircraft enter Trentinian airspace,
Sylvanian cyberwarfare experts – the country’s militarized hackers – launch a
pair of devastating cyberattacks. The
first introduces a virus into the Trentinan electrical grid, which has been
left connected to the Internet. Minutes
after virus is loosed, power plants in Trentino’s cities begin to malfunction,
and the country is plunged into darkness.
Backup power systems come online, but these do the Trentinans no good as
the second half of the Sylvanian cyber attack, a Distributed Denial of Service
(DDoS) attack of enormous proportions, hits.
All Trentinan command and control nodes that rely on the Internet are
suddenly unable to function.
 |
| Sylvanian F-15I Raam |
The Eitans enter first, broadcasting signals that convince
the Trentinan air defense systems that all is well, despite frantic calls from
the national command. When the Harops
and Harpys are in position, the Eitans switch signals, convincing the Trentinan
air defense radars that the sky is full of attackers. One by one, Trentinan radars power up,
searching the sky for likely targets for Trentino’s S-200 and S-400 Surface to
Air Missiles (SAM)….and, one by one, the Sylvanian Harops and Harpys destroy
the radars.
 |
| Trentinan S-400 SAM Launcher and Radar |
Moments later, the first Sylvanian strike aircraft scream into
the dark Trentinan sky. Groups peel off
in search of individual targets. Some
head toward Trentinan nuclear sites, some toward Trentinan airfields and some
toward other targets. Within an hour, the nuclear sites are little more than
smoking ruins and the majority of the Trentinan Air Force has been destroyed on
the ground. Thirty minutes later, the
Sylvanian pilots are streaking for home.
It has been a complete and total victory. Later estimates will determine that the that
the Trentinan nuclear program has been set back by four to five years, and that
it will be the better part of a year before Trentino has meaningful air
defenses. It has not, however, been a
bloodless victory. Nearly 20% of the
attacking Sylvanian aircraft have fallen to Trentinan gun and missile systems
that were not suppressed by the initial attacks against the air defense
grid.
The returning Sylvanian pilots are greeted as heroes.
Day 2
 |
| GBU-28 Penetrator Bomb |
By the end of the day, Trentinan repair crews have restored power
to critical command and control infrastructure.
The damage assessment is ongoing, but it is worse than the Trentinans
expected. Burying the nuclear sites
failed to provide adequate protection against the Sylvanian GBU-28 and GBU-37
penetrator bombs. Both they and the
Trentinan long range missile sites are complete losses. Worse, almost all the modern aircraft
Trentino possessed were destroyed on the ground, with the exception of an F-14A
Tomcat and a MiG-29C that were blown out of the sky by a Sylvanian F-15I .
 |
| Trentinan F-14A Tomcat Fighter and Aircrew |
 |
| SS Oceania |
 |
| Trentinan Moudge Class Frigate Jamaran |
The Trentinan government is, not surprisingly, furious. It blames not only Sylvania, but the west in
general and Freedonia in particular. In
retaliatory action, the Trentinan Navy is ordered to close the Straits of
Dalat, a narrow, 21 mile wide waterway through which much of the world’s crude
oil flows. Trentinan Houdong and Kaman
class missile boats and Moudge class
frigates take to the waves. A standoff
occurs between the
SS Oceania, a
Freedonian flagged TI class supertanker and the Moudge class frigate
Jamaran.
The
Oceania refuses to heave
to, even after the
Jamaran fires a
burst of 40mm shells across her bow. The
Jamaran’s captain calls for
instructions and is told to sink the
Oceania. Obeying orders, the
Jamaran looses a pair of C-802/Noor anti-shipping missiles into the
Oceania. The
Oceania’s
double hull keeps her afloat, but the flames and pillar of smoke from the
burning tanker can be seen for many miles.
Shipping companies order their ships to observe the
Trentinan blockade.
Overnight, the price of gasoline spikes forty cents.
Day 3
 |
| FNS Ticonderoga Class Cruiser Cold Harbor |
 |
| Trentinan C-802/Noor Missile |
In response to the Trentinan closure of the Straits of
Dalat, the Freedonian administration orders the Freedonian Navy’s 11
th
Fleet to reopen the waterway and maintain freedom of the seas. A Freedonian Ticonderoga class guided missile
cruiser, the
FNS Cold Harbor is
dispatched to escort stranded tankers through the strait. As it approaches, it is hailed by a Trentinan
frigate. The Trentinans inform the
Cold Harbor that the strait is closed,
and that she is to turn around or be fired up.
The
Cold Harbor continues her
approach. The Trentinan frigate fires a
Noor missile at the
Cold Harbor,
which the
Cold Harbor’s Phalanx Close
In Weapon Systems (CIWS) blow into shrapnel.
The
Cold Harbor continues to
sail into the strait. Suddenly, the
ship’s radars and early warning systems begin to blare. Incoming missiles. Dozens of them have been launched from
Trentinan shore sites and are streaking toward the ship at nearly the speed of
sound. The ship’s defenses are simply
saturated, and no fewer than eleven C-802 and C-803 missiles strike her. The
Cold
Harbor sinks within an hour. The
Trentinan government declares the action an act of Freedonian aggression, and moves
mechanized formations of the Trentinan Army toward its western border, within
striking distance of the major petroleum producing nations of the
Meso-Orientale.
 |
| Trentinan Zulfiqar-1 Main Battle Tank |
The Trentinan Army is large, comprising some 850,000 men
under arms. These are divided into five
corps level regional commands which can call upon four armored divisions, six
mechanized infantry divisions, one special forces division, two commando
divisions and an airborne division. It
fields some 1,600 main battle tanks including indigenous designs like the Zulfiqar
and Mobarez as well as foreign vehicles
such as the T-72, T-62, M60A1, Chieftain, Type 59 and M48 Patton. The diversity of equipment creates logistics
problems, and many formations are formidable on paper, but lack necessary
spares and ammunition supplies, rendering them significantly less combat
effective.
Day 4
 |
| Freedonian Seawolf Class Attack Submarine |
The Freedonian national command authority reacts swiftly to
the crisis. Within an hour of the
Cold Harbor’s sinking Freedonian
reconnaissance UAVs are in the air over the Gulf of Dalat, pinpointing the
location and status of every Trentinan naval vessel. Additional reconnaissance assets patrol the
skies over western Trentino, identifying and locating the positions taken up by
Trentinan ground forces. The Freedonian
Navy orders additional Virginia, Seawolf and Los Angeles class attack submarines
as well Ohio class cruise missile submarines to take up positions in the Gulf. As the attack submarines arrive in the Gulf,
they begin to silently locate and shadow Trentinan Kilo class and Nahang class
submarines as well as Trentinan surface ships.
The Freedonian Air Force scrambles squadrons of B-52, B-1 and B-2 long
range strategic bombers, and puts tactical fighter squadrons forward deployed
in the Meso-Orientale on alert. Two
additional Nimitz class aircraft carrier strike groups are ordered to the
region.
Day 5
Tanker ships remain bottled up in the Gulf of Dalat, and the
global economic impacts are both swift and severe. The Freedonian national average price for a
gallon of unleaded regular gasoline jumps to $5.75. Similar impacts are felt in the surging
economies of the People’s Sinosian Hegemony and Hindustan as well as in Europe
and South America.
 |
| Trentinan Submarine Yunes 903 |
 |
| Freedonian Tomahawk Cruise Missile |
In the pre-dawn hours, the Freedonian naval and air assault
begins. The Freedonian attack submarines
Alaska,
Oregon and
Tigershark
fire Mk. 48 Advanced Capability (ADCAP) torpedoes that strike and sink the
Trentinan submarines
Tareq 901,
Noor 902,
Yunes 903 and
Nahang. Simultaneously, Freedonian cruise missile
submarines and guided missile destroyers and cruisers launch salvoes of
Tomahawk cruise missiles against Trentinan Navy command and control facilities,
remaining air defense systems and ships in port. Particularly hard hit are vessels and storage
facilities believed to support the Trentinan Navy’s mine warfare
capability. Freedonian strategic bombers
begin to pound both Trentinan ground forces deployed along the country’s
western border and long range ballistic missile sites. The missiles are followed by waves of
Freedonian strike aircraft launched from aircraft carriers and missile armed
UAVs. Other aircraft employ precision
guided bombs to disable and sink Trentinan ships patrolling the Gulf, while the
Freedonian submarines continue to hunt and sink the Trentinan Navy.
Within eight hours of the assault’s start, the Trentinan Navy
effectively ceases to exist.
Day 6
 |
| Trentinan Shahab-3 Missile |
A desperate Trentinan government authorizes ballistic missile
strikes against both Sylvania and Freedonian allies in the Meso-Orientale. Four Shahab-3
missiles
are launched; two targeted at Sylvania’s economic capital, Tel Aviv, and one
each at Riyadh, capital of Hejaz, an oil producing desert kingdom and a
Freedonian ally, and the other at Manama, capital of Dhahani, an emirate where
the Freedonian 11
th Fleet is based.
The Trentinan missiles are engaged by Standard SM-3 air defense missiles
fired from Freedonian cruisers and destroyers in the Gulf, and three are
destroyed. The fourth missile eludes the
Freedonian ballistic missile defenses and begins its descent toward Tel
Aviv. As the missile heads toward the
city, the Sylvanian Steel Roof system begins to track it. An enagagement solution is automatically
calculated, and as the Trentinan missile comes within range, a salvo of Steel
Roof interceptor missiles are loosed at the incoming projectile. The Trentinan missile is destroyed at a
height of 45,000 feet over a sparsely populated area. There are no casualties.
 |
| Sylvanian Steel Roof Missile Launch |
The Freedonian government, fearful of the potential diplomatic
repercussions resulting in further Sylvanian actions, steps up the air campaign
against Trentinan missile sites and command and control facilities. In twenty two hours of continuous air activity,
and estimated 2,200 Trentinan armored vehicles and artillery pieces have been
destroyed, and military casualties are estimated in the tens of thousands. Trentinan offensive capabilities are
effectively eliminated.
Day 7
With the destruction of the Trentinan naval threat,
Freedonian naval vessels, as well as those of Freedonian allies including the
United Monarchy, Oceania, Teutonia and Hollandia begin escorting tankers in and
out of the Gulf. Freedonian air assets
begin enforcing a no-fly zone over Trentino.
Gas prices in Freedonia, which spiked at $7.15 per gallon in parts of
California and New York are slowly declining.
Additional Freedonian forces are sent to the Gulf region, but no
additional threats are anticipated from Trentino in the near future. The longer term impacts to the Freedonian,
and global, economies are significant.
Capital that would have otherwise been available for business expansion
and development is reallocated to basic operating expenses, and the economic
recovery, fueled by job creation, is stalled. The unemployment rate, which had
fallen to 8.3%, spikes to nearly 10% in the wake of the oil crisis. Families across the income spectrum are
impacted as the price of any goods that are transported, from paper to milk to
clothes to vegetables rise by double digit percentages. The grim, austere economic conditions are
reflected politically, and in the presidential election, the incumbent party is
soundly defeated by an angry public.
---
Coda
Fascinating as the match-up of military hardware and forces
may be, it’s important to look at the root cause of the issues in the Middle
East. The Middle East matters, but why? It’s not because the
world has a burning desire to solve the Israeli-Palestinian issue, or because
the majority of the planet cares deeply about urban development in Dubai. It’s because the world remains dependent on
fossil fuels in general and petroleum products in particular, of which there
are huge reserves in the Middle East. As
a result, blood and treasure are spilled wantonly by powers in both hemispheres
seeking to either create stability in or exert control over the Middle East’s
oil fields, and the region assumes a disproportionate importance on the global
stage.
The most effective response to instability in the region is
to deprive it of importance. Realization
of this goal depends on the achievement of energy independence. Remove energy dependency and the strategic
rationale for defending the region disappears, as does a major bone of
contention between the developed and the developing world. The result of that disappearance is an
abnormal condition called “peace.”
Despite this, no American administration in the last half century has made
energy independence an overriding national priority.
* With apologies to the Marx Brothers.
