Reading the Tea Leaves: A Foray into the Next War

It’s difficult not to pay attention to the saber rattling in the Middle East, not with gas prices approaching or exceeding $4.00 per gallon in most of the United States and a constant barrage of articles on the news wires like THIS, THIS , and THIS.  I’m neither a politician nor a diplomat, but I am a military analyst and weapons technology expert with a more than passing familiarity with the weapons and forces that will shape a potential conflict.  I’ll beg your indulgence while I engage in a bit of military futurism.

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Setting the Stage

Let’s say we have three countries, Freedonia, Sylvania and Trentino.*  

Freedonia

Freedonia is a global superpower, with military forces and commitments spread around the world.  These forces are well equipped with modern weapons, electronics and communications.  Freedonia has a vital strategic interest in the part of the world (let’s call it the “Meso-Orientale”) where both Sylvania and Trentino are situated.  This strategic interest is due to the fact that a large portion of Freedonia’s energy supplies come from petroleum drilling in Meso-Orientalian countries.  Much of this petroleum is shipped in tankers through a narrow waterway off of Trentino’s southern coast.

Sylvania

Sylvania is a dominant regional power whose forces are at least as well equipped as those of Freedonia.  It is surrounded by states that are politically and, given its position as the world’s only Semitic state,  theologically hostile to it.  It has fought six wars with some or all of these states since its founding in the late 1940s, and faces an ongoing threat of terrorism from organizations claiming to represent an indigenous population group that, for various reasons, was displaced by Sylvania’s founding.  These groups are supplied and funded by Trentino, and regularly launch mortar and rocket attacks against Sylvanian cities.  To defend against these attacks, Sylvania has developed an indigenous integrated radar and interceptor rocket system called “Steel Roof.”  Sylvania is widely thought to be a nuclear power, but there has never been any objective confirmation or denial of this capability. 

Trentino

Trentinan uranium enrichment facility, near Qom.

Trentino is a regional power.  For most of the 20^th century, Trentino’s political orientation was western, and it was seen as a vital bulwark against communist expansion during the Cold War.  During the latter half of the century, Trentino received significant military and technical aid from both Freedonia and Sylvania.  In the late 1970s, Trentino’s monarchy was overthrown by a popular revolution organized around fundamentalist religious lines, and a “revolutionary” theocracy was established.  The new government was vehemently anti-western, and even held a number of Freedonian diplomats hostage for over 400 days.  Trentino’s revolutionary government is also opposed to the existence of the Sylvanian state, and regularly broadcasts speeches and platforms that both support anti-Sylvanian terrorism and urge that Sylvania be wiped off the face of the planet.  Trentino has been attempting to develop what it calls a “peaceful nuclear capability” since prior to the overthrow of the monarchy.  It is generally believed that Trentino’s nuclear ambitions are geared more toward the development of deliverable nuclear weapons and less toward providing electricity for its population.

Tensions

Anti-Freedonian rally in Trentino

Recently, both Freedonian and Sylvanian intelligence services have reported that Trentino is rapidly approaching a nuclear threshold.  Economic sanctions imposed by the United Nations have been ineffective in deterring Trentinan nuclear development.  Additionally, it is believed that the downward spiral of the Trentinan economy may be forcing the government to accelerate the nuclear program as a means of distracting and placating a restive population.  The imminence of a nuclear capable Trentino is of great concern to Freedonia due to its energy interests in the region, but of existential concern to Sylvania, which Trentino has, many times, sworn to wipe from the face of the planet with “hellfire.”

 

As a result of these concerns, the Sylvanians are actively planning for a contingency operation in which the Sylvanian Air Force will destroy the dozen or so Trentinan nuclear facilities in a surprise precision attack. Meanwhile, the Freedonian administration, which is notably more distant in its relations with Sylvania than previous administrations, is both advising restraint and admonishing Sylvania as to the dire consequences of unilateral action.  However, the Sylvanian government remains adamant that its priority is to protect and preserve the Sylvanian state.   Trentino is making no effort to diminish tensions, in fact, quite the opposite.  The Trentinan government routinely threatens both Freedonia and Sylvania.  In fact, itwas recently discovered that Trentinan agents in Kush had been planning to bomba Sylvanian ship as it transited the Alexandria Canal.  

Action

In early April, the Sylvanian government is advised by its intelligence agencies, and very likely, those of regional allies, that left unhindered, Trentino will be able to build a nuclear weapon within three months.  Faced with this stark reality, the Sylvanian government reluctantly authorizes the strike.  

Day 1

As darkness falls on April 24^th, Sylvanian aircraft take to the skies.  These, however, are not the F-16 and F-15 fighters that will bear the brunt of the fight, but Eitan, Harpy and Harop Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV).

 

Eitan MALE UAV

The Eitan, a Medium Altitude Long Endurance (MALE) UAV serves as a reconnaissance platform, providing real-time feedback to Sylvanian strike controllers as to the state and condition of Trentinan defenses.  However, a number of the Eitans have been modified to carry electronic warfare payloads.  These payloads give the Trentinans tremendous capabilities, from mimicking a maintenance cell phone signal that puts a cell network out of action by commanding it to “sleep” to jammers that interfere with first responder emergency frequencies and signal generators that at one moment will spoof the  Trentinan air defense radars so that at first they see a perfectly clear sky and at the next moment see a sky filled with many hundreds of aircraft.

Harpy UCAV

The Harpy and Harop are stealthy Unmanned Combat Aerial Vehicles (UCAV) designed to quietly loiter around the battlespace until air defense radars begin emitting their search and tracking signals. Once Trentinan radars light up, the UCAVs dive into them and detonate their integral warhead, effectively suppressing Trentino’s ability to engage Sylvanian strike aircraft.

Harop UCAV

MSOV

The UAVs are followed a few hours later by waves of Sylvanian F-16  and F-15 aircraft.  Some are carrying precision guided penetrator munitions designed to burrow dozens of feet into reinforced concrete before detonating.  Others are carrying Runway Attack Munitons (RAM) which release dozens of penetrating submunitions that crater a runway, rendering it useless, or the Modular Stand-Off Vehicle (MSOV), a precision guided, missile shaped gliding  vehicle that can be programmed to fly over an air base and dispense homing bomblets intended to destroy aircraft on the ground.

Runway Attack Munition

 Some aircraft are fitted entirely with air-to-air missiles, intended to counter any Trentinan aircraft that get off the ground.

Before the Sylvanian aircraft enter Trentinian airspace, Sylvanian cyberwarfare experts – the country’s militarized hackers – launch a pair of devastating cyberattacks.  The first introduces a virus into the Trentinan electrical grid, which has been left connected to the Internet.  Minutes after virus is loosed, power plants in Trentino’s cities begin to malfunction, and the country is plunged into darkness.  Backup power systems come online, but these do the Trentinans no good as the second half of the Sylvanian cyber attack, a Distributed Denial of Service (DDoS) attack of enormous proportions, hits.  All Trentinan command and control nodes that rely on the Internet are suddenly unable to function.

Sylvanian F-15I Raam

The Eitans enter first, broadcasting signals that convince the Trentinan air defense systems that all is well, despite frantic calls from the national command.   When the Harops and Harpys are in position, the Eitans switch signals, convincing the Trentinan air defense radars that the sky is full of attackers.  One by one, Trentinan radars power up, searching the sky for likely targets for Trentino’s S-200 and S-400 Surface to Air Missiles (SAM)….and, one by one, the Sylvanian Harops and Harpys destroy the radars.

Trentinan S-400 SAM Launcher and Radar

Moments later, the first Sylvanian strike aircraft scream into the dark Trentinan sky.   Groups peel off in search of individual targets.  Some head toward Trentinan nuclear sites, some toward Trentinan airfields and some toward other targets. Within an hour, the nuclear sites are little more than smoking ruins and the majority of the Trentinan Air Force has been destroyed on the ground.  Thirty minutes later, the Sylvanian pilots are streaking for home.  It has been a complete and total victory.  Later estimates will determine that the that the Trentinan nuclear program has been set back by four to five years, and that it will be the better part of a year before Trentino has meaningful air defenses.  It has not, however, been a bloodless victory.   Nearly 20% of the attacking Sylvanian aircraft have fallen to Trentinan gun and missile systems that were not suppressed by the initial attacks against the air defense grid.

The returning Sylvanian pilots are greeted as heroes.

Day 2

GBU-28 Penetrator Bomb

By the end of the day, Trentinan repair crews have restored power to critical command and control infrastructure.  The damage assessment is ongoing, but it is worse than the Trentinans expected.  Burying the nuclear sites failed to provide adequate protection against the Sylvanian GBU-28 and GBU-37 penetrator bombs.  Both they and the Trentinan long range missile sites are complete losses.  Worse, almost all the modern aircraft Trentino possessed were destroyed on the ground, with the exception of an F-14A Tomcat and a MiG-29C that were blown out of the sky by a Sylvanian F-15I .

Trentinan F-14A Tomcat Fighter and Aircrew

SS Oceania

Trentinan Moudge Class Frigate Jamaran

The Trentinan government is, not surprisingly, furious.  It blames not only Sylvania, but the west in general and Freedonia in particular.  In retaliatory action, the Trentinan Navy is ordered to close the Straits of Dalat, a narrow, 21 mile wide waterway through which much of the world’s crude oil flows.  Trentinan Houdong and Kaman class missile boats and  Moudge class frigates take to the waves.  A standoff occurs between the SS Oceania, a Freedonian flagged TI class supertanker and the Moudge class frigate Jamaran.  The Oceania refuses to heave to, even after the Jamaran fires a burst of 40mm shells across her bow.  The Jamaran’s captain calls for instructions and is told to sink the Oceania.   Obeying orders, the Jamaran looses a pair of C-802/Noor anti-shipping missiles into the Oceania.  The Oceania’s double hull keeps her afloat, but the flames and pillar of smoke from the burning tanker can be seen for many miles.

Shipping companies order their ships to observe the Trentinan blockade.

Overnight, the price of gasoline spikes forty cents.

Day 3

FNS Ticonderoga Class Cruiser Cold Harbor

Trentinan C-802/Noor Missile

In response to the Trentinan closure of the Straits of Dalat, the Freedonian administration orders the Freedonian Navy’s 11^th Fleet to reopen the waterway and maintain freedom of the seas.  A Freedonian Ticonderoga class guided missile cruiser, the FNS Cold Harbor is dispatched to escort stranded tankers through the strait.  As it approaches, it is hailed by a Trentinan frigate.  The Trentinans inform the Cold Harbor that the strait is closed, and that she is to turn around or be fired up.  The Cold Harbor continues her approach.  The Trentinan frigate fires a Noor missile at the Cold Harbor, which the Cold Harbor’s Phalanx Close In Weapon Systems (CIWS) blow into shrapnel.  The Cold Harbor continues to sail into the strait.  Suddenly, the ship’s radars and early warning systems begin to blare.  Incoming missiles.  Dozens of them have been launched from Trentinan shore sites and are streaking toward the ship at nearly the speed of sound.  The ship’s defenses are simply saturated, and no fewer than eleven C-802 and C-803 missiles strike her.  The Cold Harbor sinks within an hour.  The Trentinan government declares the action an act of Freedonian aggression, and moves mechanized formations of the Trentinan Army toward its western border, within striking distance of the major petroleum producing nations of the Meso-Orientale. 

Trentinan Zulfiqar-1 Main Battle Tank

The Trentinan Army is large, comprising some 850,000 men under arms.  These are divided into five corps level regional commands which can call upon four armored divisions, six mechanized infantry divisions, one special forces division, two commando divisions and an airborne division.  It fields some 1,600 main battle tanks including indigenous designs like the Zulfiqar  and Mobarez as well as foreign vehicles such as the T-72, T-62, M60A1, Chieftain, Type 59 and M48 Patton.  The diversity of equipment creates logistics problems, and many formations are formidable on paper, but lack necessary spares and ammunition supplies, rendering them significantly less combat effective.

Day 4

Freedonian Seawolf Class Attack Submarine

The Freedonian national command authority reacts swiftly to the crisis.  Within an hour of the Cold Harbor’s sinking Freedonian reconnaissance UAVs are in the air over the Gulf of Dalat, pinpointing the location and status of every Trentinan naval vessel.  Additional reconnaissance assets patrol the skies over western Trentino, identifying and locating the positions taken up by Trentinan ground forces.  The Freedonian Navy orders additional Virginia, Seawolf and Los Angeles class attack submarines as well Ohio class cruise missile submarines to take up positions in the Gulf.  As the attack submarines arrive in the Gulf, they begin to silently locate and shadow Trentinan Kilo class and Nahang class submarines as well as Trentinan surface ships.  The Freedonian Air Force scrambles squadrons of B-52, B-1 and B-2 long range strategic bombers, and puts tactical fighter squadrons forward deployed in the Meso-Orientale on alert.  Two additional Nimitz class aircraft carrier strike groups are ordered to the region.

Day 5

Tanker ships remain bottled up in the Gulf of Dalat, and the global economic impacts are both swift and severe.  The Freedonian national average price for a gallon of unleaded regular gasoline jumps to $5.75.  Similar impacts are felt in the surging economies of the People’s Sinosian Hegemony and Hindustan as well as in Europe and South America. 

Trentinan Submarine Yunes 903

Freedonian Tomahawk Cruise Missile

In the pre-dawn hours, the Freedonian naval and air assault begins.  The Freedonian attack submarines Alaska, Oregon and Tigershark fire Mk. 48 Advanced Capability (ADCAP) torpedoes that strike and sink the Trentinan submarines Tareq 901, Noor 902, Yunes 903 and Nahang.  Simultaneously, Freedonian cruise missile submarines and guided missile destroyers and cruisers launch salvoes of Tomahawk cruise missiles against Trentinan Navy command and control facilities, remaining air defense systems and ships in port.  Particularly hard hit are vessels and storage facilities believed to support the Trentinan Navy’s mine warfare capability.  Freedonian strategic bombers begin to pound both Trentinan ground forces deployed along the country’s western border and long range ballistic missile sites.  The missiles are followed by waves of Freedonian strike aircraft launched from aircraft carriers and missile armed UAVs.  Other aircraft employ precision guided bombs to disable and sink Trentinan ships patrolling the Gulf, while the Freedonian submarines continue to hunt and sink the Trentinan Navy.

Within eight hours of the assault’s start, the Trentinan Navy effectively ceases to exist. 

Day 6

Trentinan Shahab-3 Missile

A desperate Trentinan government authorizes ballistic missile strikes against both Sylvania and Freedonian allies in the Meso-Orientale.  Four Shahab-3 missiles are launched; two targeted at Sylvania’s economic capital, Tel Aviv, and one each at Riyadh, capital of Hejaz, an oil producing desert kingdom and a Freedonian ally, and the other at Manama, capital of Dhahani, an emirate where the Freedonian 11^th Fleet is based.  The Trentinan missiles are engaged by Standard SM-3 air defense missiles fired from Freedonian cruisers and destroyers in the Gulf, and three are destroyed.  The fourth missile eludes the Freedonian ballistic missile defenses and begins its descent toward Tel Aviv.  As the missile heads toward the city, the Sylvanian Steel Roof system begins to track it.  An enagagement solution is automatically calculated, and as the Trentinan missile comes within range, a salvo of Steel Roof interceptor missiles are loosed at the incoming projectile.  The Trentinan missile is destroyed at a height of 45,000 feet over a sparsely populated area.  There are no casualties.

Sylvanian Steel Roof Missile Launch

The Freedonian government, fearful of the potential diplomatic repercussions resulting in further Sylvanian actions, steps up the air campaign against Trentinan missile sites and command and control facilities.  In twenty two hours of continuous air activity, and estimated 2,200 Trentinan armored vehicles and artillery pieces have been destroyed, and military casualties are estimated in the tens of thousands.  Trentinan offensive capabilities are effectively eliminated.

Day 7

With the destruction of the Trentinan naval threat, Freedonian naval vessels, as well as those of Freedonian allies including the United Monarchy, Oceania, Teutonia and Hollandia begin escorting tankers in and out of the Gulf.  Freedonian air assets begin enforcing a no-fly zone over Trentino.  Gas prices in Freedonia, which spiked at $7.15 per gallon in parts of California and New York are slowly declining.  Additional Freedonian forces are sent to the Gulf region, but no additional threats are anticipated from Trentino in the near future.   The longer term impacts to the Freedonian, and global, economies are significant.  Capital that would have otherwise been available for business expansion and development is reallocated to basic operating expenses, and the economic recovery, fueled by job creation, is stalled. The unemployment rate, which had fallen to 8.3%, spikes to nearly 10% in the wake of the oil crisis.  Families across the income spectrum are impacted as the price of any goods that are transported, from paper to milk to clothes to vegetables rise by double digit percentages.  The grim, austere economic conditions are reflected politically, and in the presidential election, the incumbent party is soundly defeated by an angry public.

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Coda

Fascinating as the match-up of military hardware and forces may be, it’s important to look at the root cause of the issues in the Middle East.  The Middle East matters, but why? It’s not because the world has a burning desire to solve the Israeli-Palestinian issue, or because the majority of the planet cares deeply about urban development in Dubai.  It’s because the world remains dependent on fossil fuels in general and petroleum products in particular, of which there are huge reserves in the Middle East.  As a result, blood and treasure are spilled wantonly by powers in both hemispheres seeking to either create stability in or exert control over the Middle East’s oil fields, and the region assumes a disproportionate importance on the global stage. 

The most effective response to instability in the region is to deprive it of importance.  Realization of this goal depends on the achievement of energy independence.  Remove energy dependency and the strategic rationale for defending the region disappears, as does a major bone of contention between the developed and the developing world.  The result of that disappearance is an abnormal condition called “peace.”  Despite this, no American administration in the last half century has made energy independence an overriding national priority.

* With apologies to the Marx Brothers.